A recent global modelling study published in The Lancet Public Health journal suggests that reducing smoking rates to just 5% by 2050 could significantly enhance life expectancy. According to the research, men could expect to live an additional year, while women could gain an extra 0.2 years. These projections highlight the profound impact that further reducing smoking could have on global health.

The researchers found that, if current trends continue, global smoking rates could naturally drop to 21% among men and about 4% among women by 2050. However, if efforts to eliminate tobacco use are accelerated, the benefits could be even greater, including the prevention of millions of premature deaths. The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators stated that eliminating smoking could prevent a staggering 876 million years of lives lost due to death and disease.

One of the most significant findings of the study is that banning the sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths globally by the year 2095. The study spanned 185 countries, and researchers noted that low- and middle-income countries, which often have younger populations, would experience the most significant benefits. Approximately two-thirds of the averted lung cancer deaths would occur in these regions, as they tend to have higher tobacco use among younger individuals.

Professor Stein Emil Vollset, the senior author of the study and a researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, stressed the importance of maintaining and strengthening anti-smoking efforts. “We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking," he emphasized.

The estimates regarding preventable deaths were based on an analysis of how banning tobacco sales could affect lung cancer rates in people born between 2006 and 2010. The study also looked at the potential effects of a "tobacco-free generation" policy, which would prevent the sale of tobacco to individuals born after a certain year. Although the concept has been discussed for years, it has not yet been implemented in any country.

New Zealand had taken a bold step toward this policy by passing legislation in December 2022 that banned the sale of tobacco products to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. However, this legislation was repealed earlier this year, leaving the tobacco-free generation policy untested in practice.

In their report, the authors urged countries to not only maintain existing tobacco control measures but to introduce new policies aimed at further reducing smoking-related risks. They warned that without continued vigilance, the progress made over the past few decades could be undone, leading to a resurgence in smoking-related diseases. With smoking still one of the leading causes of preventable death worldwide, the researchers emphasized the urgent need for continued global action to reduce tobacco use and its devastating health impacts.

The findings of this study underscore the significant potential for improving public health by further reducing smoking rates. As smoking trends decline, many lives can be saved, but only if governments and health organizations commit to maintaining momentum in tobacco control efforts. With the possibility of preventing millions of deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, the researchers stress that now is not the time to let up in the fight against smoking.

Input from various sources

(Rehash/Yash Kamble/MSM)