Imagine a world where a new, deadly virus emerges, sweeping across borders and changing lives in ways we never imagined. This isn't just a dystopian scenario but a real possibility as experts warn that our planet’s changing climate and encroaching habitats could ignite the next global health crisis. From the shadows of past pandemics to the forefront of our future battles, researchers have identified four high-risk viruses that could potentially spark the next pandemic. Let’s explore these viral threats, understand their potential impact, and discover what we can do to stay one step ahead.
Dr. Aashita Pargal from Medbound Times spoke with Alisha Gupta, a Biotechnologist (M.Tech Biotechnology) working with Mankind Pharma, to gain insights into the evolving landscape of viral threats:
Viruses are formidable adversaries, constantly evolving and presenting new challenges to global health. Their ability to mutate and adapt allows them to evade immune responses and jump species, posing unpredictable threats. Understanding their biology and ecology, including their modes of transmission and environmental reservoirs, is crucial for developing targeted interventions and strategies to prevent and control outbreaks effectively.Alisha Gupta, Biotechnologist, Mankind Pharma
1. Ebola and Marburg Viruses: The Hemorrhagic Fevers
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe, often fatal illness in humans, caused by the Ebola virus, part of the Filoviridae family. Ebola, with five known strains, and Marburg, its near-twin, have historically caused devastating outbreaks in Africa.
Ebola has a case fatality rate ranging from 25% to 90% (1), while Marburg’s ranges from 24% to 88% (2). With only two vaccines available—one for Ebola’s Zaire strain and another in development for Marburg—our defenses are still limited.
Origin and Transmission: The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission via direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs, or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials contaminated with these fluids.
Symptoms: Sudden onset of fever, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, and sore throat. This is followed by vomiting, diarrhea, rash, symptoms of impaired kidney and liver function, and in some cases, internal and external bleeding.
Outbreaks: Major outbreaks have occurred in Africa, with the most notable between 2014-2016 in West Africa, resulting in over 11,000 deaths.
Treatment and Prevention: Supportive care-rehydration, and symptomatic treatment improve survival. Vaccines (such as rVSV-ZEBOV) have been used to control outbreaks.
Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus, transmitted from animals to humans, and can also be transmitted through contaminated food or directly between people.
Origin and Transmission: Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are the natural hosts. Transmission occurs through direct contact with infected bats, pigs, or humans.
Symptoms: Initial symptoms include fever, headaches, muscle pain, vomiting, and sore throat. Severe cases progress to encephalitis and seizures, leading to coma within 24-48 hours.
Outbreaks: First identified in Malaysia in 1998-1999, with subsequent outbreaks in Bangladesh and India. Mortality rates range from 40% to 75%. (3)
Treatment and Prevention: No specific treatment or vaccine available. Management focuses on intensive supportive care. Preventive measures include avoiding exposure to sick pigs and bats and ensuring proper food hygiene.
Machupo virus is responsible for Bolivian hemorrhagic fever (BHF), a severe hemorrhagic fever, is carried by the Calomys callosus field mouse. It causes symptoms similar to Ebola and Marburg, with a fatality rate of 25% to 33% (4).
Origin and Transmission: The virus is transmitted to humans through contact with the saliva, urine, or faeces of infected rodents, particularly the Calomys callosus species.
Symptoms: Early symptoms include fever, headache, muscle pain, and fatigue, progressing to severe bleeding, shock, and neurological symptoms.
Outbreaks: The disease is endemic in Bolivia, with sporadic outbreaks since the 1950s.
Treatment and Prevention: Ribavirin has been used with some success in treatment. Prevention focuses on rodent control and avoiding contact with rodent excreta.
Influenza, commonly known as the flu, is a highly contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. Influenza kills up to 650,000 people globally each year (5)
Origin and Transmission: The virus spreads through respiratory droplets when infected individuals cough, sneeze, or talk. It can also be spread by touching surfaces contaminated with the virus.
Symptoms: Symptoms include high fever, chills, muscle aches, cough, congestion, runny nose, headaches, and fatigue. Severe cases can lead to pneumonia, respiratory failure, and death.
Outbreaks: Seasonal outbreaks occur annually worldwide, with pandemics caused by new strains. The 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, and 1968 Hong Kong flu were major pandemics.
Treatment and Prevention: Antiviral medications can reduce the severity and duration of symptoms. Annual vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza and its complications.
Major influenza pandemics and their global impacts:
| Pandemic | Year | Estimated Death Toll | Virus Strain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish Flu | 1918 | 50 million | H1N1 |
| Asian Flu | 1957 | 2 million | H2N2 |
| Hong Kong Flu | 1968 | 1 million | H3N2 |
Why It Matters: Improved surveillance can help detect outbreaks early. The pandemic saw advancements in wastewater monitoring for pathogens like COVID-19, a practice that could be expanded to include other viruses.
Practical Steps: Establish or enhance wastewater surveillance systems at international airports and major cities to detect potential outbreaks before they spread. (6)
Alisha Gupta adds to the conversation with Medbound Times, stating:
The interconnected nature of our world, characterised by rapid travel and trade, accelerates the spread of emerging viruses across borders. Vigilant surveillance systems are crucial to early detection, allowing for swift containment measures that can prevent widespread outbreaks. Concurrently, advancing research in diagnostics and vaccines is paramount to developing effective tools that can curb the impact of future pandemics, safeguarding global health and securityAlisha Gupta, Biotechnologist, Mankind Pharma
Why It Matters: Climate change exacerbates the risk of zoonotic diseases by altering habitats and increasing human-animal interactions. (7)
Practical Steps:
Conserve Energy: Use energy-efficient appliances and reduce unnecessary energy consumption.
Switch to Renewables: Explore options for solar or wind energy for your home.
Rethink Transportation: Opt for walking, biking, or using public transportation to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Mindful Shopping: Buy less, choose sustainable products, and support environmentally conscious companies.
Dietary Adjustments: Consider a plant-based diet to reduce your carbon footprint
Why It Matters: Continued research into vaccines and treatments for high-risk viruses is essential for future preparedness.
Practical Steps: Support public health initiatives, advocate for increased funding for research, and stay informed about ongoing scientific advancements.
As we stand on the precipice of potential new pandemics, the importance of vigilance, preparedness, and collective action cannot be overstated. Understanding the threats posed by viruses like Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, Machupo, and even the ever-present influenza, equips us to anticipate and mitigate their impacts. Strengthening our surveillance systems, addressing climate change, and supporting ongoing research and vaccine development are critical steps we must take now. Each measure, whether individual or systemic, contributes to a global defense against these formidable threats.
The future of our global health depends on our proactive efforts today. By staying informed, advocating for scientific advancements, and adopting sustainable practices, we can collectively forge a path toward a safer, healthier world. Our actions today will define our resilience tomorrow. Let’s embrace this responsibility and work together to ensure that when the next viral threat emerges, we are ready to face it head-on.
References-
1- https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/about/index.html (cited on 18/07/2024)
2- https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/marburg-virus-disease (cited on 18/07/2024)
3- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8516003/ (cited on 18/07/2024)
4- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4028408/ (cited on 18/07/2024)
5- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/index.html (cited on 18/07/2024)
6- https://www.unep.org/technical-highlight/wastewater-surveillance-sentinel-disease (cited on 18/07/2024)
7- https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/adaptation-mitigation/ (cited on 18/07/2024)
By Dr. Aashita Pargal