A recent study published in The Lancet sent shockwaves around the world, warning of a substantial drop in fertility rates that might change the world's demographics by 2050. The analysis finds that India, in particular, is facing a birth deficit, with its total fertility rate (TFR) expected to fall to 1.29 by 2050.
India's demographic environment has shifted dramatically over the last century, with the TFR falling from 6.18 in 1950 to 1.91 in 2021. This declining trend has major concerns because it is below the replacement level required to maintain a steady population size. If current estimates are correct, India might confront a slew of issues, including an aging population, workforce shortages, and potential social inequalities caused by gender preferences.
Niger (Western Sub-Saharan Africa): 5.15
Chad (Western Sub-Saharan Africa): 4.81
Somalia (Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa): 4.30
Mali (Western Sub-Saharan Africa): 4.21
South Sudan (Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa): 4.09
The most urgent need of the hour is to promote gender equality. Govts and societies would have to significantly reduce the costs of motherhood for women.Poonam Mutreja, Executive Director of Population Foundation of India (PFI)
The reasons for this reduction are diverse. Factors such as increased female education and empowerment, urbanization, improved access to family planning and contraception, and evolving social norms toward smaller family sizes have all contributed to lower fertility rates. As families become more economically established, the costs of raising children climb, creating a preference for smaller families.
However, India is not alone in facing this demographic upheaval. According to the Lancet report, by 2050, around three-quarters of the world's population will be dropping due to lower birth rates. This trend is anticipated to accelerate by 2100, with 97% of countries falling below the replacement level of fertility.
Increased education and empowerment of women result in greater career aspirations and delayed marriages and childbirth, further contributing to a decline in the TFR. Other reasons for this trend include urbanisation, improved access to family planning and contraception, and a shift in social norms and values towards smaller family sizes.Poonam Mutreja, Executive Director of Population Foundation of India (PFI)
The repercussions of the global drop-in reproduction rates are significant. Economies will experience considerable alterations, and social policies must adapt to meet aging populations and labor shortages. To continue economic growth, countries may need to embrace open immigration policies, particularly in regions where populations are declining.
To address these difficulties, experts underline the need for increasing gender equality and lowering the cost of parenthood for women. Governments and society must prioritize measures that assist individuals in having the desired number of children while pursuing careers and education.
(Input from various resources)
(Rehash/Susmita Bhandary/MSM)